Congressional Coattail
Members of Congress disclose their stock trades within 30 days under the STOCK Act. Some consistently outperform — likely from access to information not yet public. This page simulates a buy-and-hold portfolio for each politician's disclosed buys over the last 365 days and ranks them by hypothetical return, then surfaces what the top performers are buying now.
Ideas tracked (50d)
3
Win rate
0.00
Avg return
-0.15%
Best idea
T +-0.1%
Worst idea
ADI -0.2%
🎯 Top 3 Trade Ideas
Educational only — not investment advice · for analysis purposes only
MSFT
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Microsoft Corporation
Spot price: $487.55
Strike$490
ExpirationNov 20, 2026 (107d)
3 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (10 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
AAPL
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Apple Inc.
Spot price: $311.63
Strike$310
ExpirationNov 20, 2026 (107d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
PANW
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Spot price: $365.00
Strike$365
ExpirationNov 20, 2026 (107d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
▸ Show past trade ideas (3 total · last 50 days) 3 resolved · 0.00 win · -0.15% avg
| Date | # | Ticker | Category | Action | Strike | Exp | Status | Entry | Now/Final | Return | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | 1 | T | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $22 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $22.44 | $22.43 | -0.05% | Tim Moore buy (2026-06-04, lag ?d) |
| Jun 17 | 2 | ADI | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $415 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $415.30 | $414.45 | -0.20% | Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 14d) |
| Jun 17 | 3 | MU | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $1060 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $1058.00 | $1056.01 | -0.19% | Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 12d) |
Top 15 Politicians by Return (365d)
Hypothetical buy-and-hold at transaction-date close · min 3 buys · min $10k disclosed value| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Tickers | Sim. Invested | Current Value | P&L | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Moore | House | 50 | 12 | $981,047 | $1,410,058 | +$429,012 | +43.73% |
| 2 | Jared Moskowitz | House | 68 | 27 | $579,037 | $771,313 | +$192,276 | +33.21% |
| 3 | Scott Scott Franklin | House | 3 | 1 | $66,002 | $86,105 | +$20,103 | +30.46% |
| 4 | Robert E. Latta | House | 5 | 1 | $47,003 | $58,587 | +$11,584 | +24.65% |
| 5 | Josh Gottheimer | House | 41 | 32 | $1,596,023 | $1,943,734 | +$347,712 | +21.79% |
| 6 | Dan Newhouse | House | 35 | 35 | $280,018 | $336,648 | +$56,630 | +20.22% |
| 7 | Ed Case | House | 4 | 1 | $32,002 | $38,193 | +$6,191 | +19.34% |
| 8 | Cleo Fields | House | 102 | 23 | $4,269,086 | $5,058,120 | +$789,035 | +18.48% |
| 9 | Byron Donalds | House | 37 | 17 | $296,019 | $348,306 | +$52,288 | +17.66% |
| 10 | Lisa McClain | House | 217 | 180 | $1,778,112 | $2,091,188 | +$313,076 | +17.61% |
| 11 | Julie Johnson | House | 6 | 4 | $48,003 | $55,991 | +$7,988 | +16.64% |
| 12 | Jonathan Jackson | House | 27 | 18 | $454,021 | $517,237 | +$63,216 | +13.92% |
| 13 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | 43 | 32 | $393,025 | $444,127 | +$51,102 | +13.00% |
| 14 | Maria Elvira Salazar | House | 52 | 27 | $640,040 | $722,114 | +$82,074 | +12.82% |
| 15 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | 645 | 292 | $5,935,841 | $6,645,552 | +$709,712 | +11.96% |
Smart Money Picks
Tickers most-bought by the top 10 performers (last 180 days)Recent Smart-Money Trades
Latest disclosures from top-10 performers (last 120 days)| Filer | Side | Ticker | Amount | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert E. Latta | BUY | FMAO | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | FIS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | ACN | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | MGA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | AMAT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | LLY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | MS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | HON | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | INTU | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | NVDA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | HSY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Cleo Fields | BUY | TSM | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | UBER | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | AMCR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | UNH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | FE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | PANW | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | FTNT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | APH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | ANET | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | COST | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | HONAV | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | AMD | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | DUK | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | MU | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | UPS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | MPC | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | FMC | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | TMO | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | DE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | ADBE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | CSX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | GOOGL | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Tim Moore | SELL | DASH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | NTDOY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | INSM | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | BABA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | NSRGY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | ADC | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | NVZMY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 1, 2026 |
Bottom Performers
For reference only — these politicians' buys have underperformed| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valerie Hoyle | House | 6 | -7.18% |
| 2 | August Lee Pfluger | House | 5 | -2.27% |
| 3 | April McClain Delaney | House | 145 | -0.01% |
| 4 | Richard W. Allen | House | 7 | 0.23% |
| 5 | Virginia Foxx | House | 8 | 0.59% |
| 6 | Rick Larsen | House | 12 | 3.66% |
| 7 | Nancy Pelosi | House | 12 | 4.60% |
| 8 | Lloyd Doggett | House | 16 | 5.01% |
| 9 | Thomas H. Kean | House | 19 | 8.31% |
| 10 | Julia Letlow | House | 37 | 9.05% |
Evidence Behind This Strategy
Train baseline:
+0.0231
vs Test: +0.0069
OOS 5/10 ✓
▸ Show methodology
Train top politicians (sorted by lift vs baseline)
| Politician | n | mean | hit | lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Moore | 36 | +0.1283 | 0.86 | +0.1052 |
| Jefferson Shreve | 25 | +0.0850 | 0.84 | +0.0618 |
| Byron Donalds | 12 | +0.0673 | 0.58 | +0.0441 |
| Rob Bresnahan | 40 | +0.0649 | 0.70 | +0.0418 |
| Josh Gottheimer | 27 | +0.0644 | 0.78 | +0.0412 |
| Scott Scott Franklin | 33 | +0.0521 | 0.70 | +0.0289 |
| Cleo Fields | 170 | +0.0508 | 0.75 | +0.0277 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | 23 | +0.0413 | 0.78 | +0.0181 |
| Ritchie John Torres | 60 | +0.0391 | 0.67 | +0.0160 |
| Julia Letlow | 106 | +0.0336 | 0.64 | +0.0104 |
| Julie Johnson | 10 | +0.0289 | 0.70 | +0.0058 |
| David J. Taylor | 23 | +0.0274 | 0.61 | +0.0043 |
| Dan Newhouse | 14 | +0.0273 | 0.36 | +0.0042 |
| Gilbert Cisneros | 73 | +0.0265 | 0.59 | +0.0034 |
| Jonathan Jackson | 32 | +0.0230 | 0.56 | -0.0001 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 53 | +0.0188 | 0.64 | -0.0044 |
| Thomas H. Kean | 14 | +0.0163 | 0.64 | -0.0068 |
| Valerie Hoyle | 181 | +0.0079 | 0.50 | -0.0153 |
| Lisa McClain | 657 | +0.0046 | 0.50 | -0.0185 |
| April McClain Delaney | 28 | -0.0026 | 0.50 | -0.0257 |
| Jared Moskowitz | 23 | -0.0137 | 0.43 | -0.0368 |
Out-of-sample carryover
6/10 train-top politicians appear in test;
mean test lift +0.0288
Method
For each politician's disclosed BUY: enter at disclosure-date close, hold 30 sessions, measure return. Baseline = all-trades mean. Out-of-sample: train on first 60% of disclosures, test on last 40%. Check whether top-10 train politicians hold their edge in test.